Summing up 2018 (and how about 2019?)

I now close the books for a fantastic year in many senses! 2018 was the year when my profit from betting was bigger than ever, I started a new and really funny job leading an analyst function at an insurance company and above all: a nice family year with everybody healthy and happy. We went on several vacations together (Italy, Switzerland and Fuerteventura). I also managed to make a USA trip (Boston) to watch a couple of NHL games with a friend. Quite intense but really funny!

This blog focus on the betting and there are several positive aspects of my betting in 2018. A short recap of the forecast I did early 2018:

How will 2018 turn out? As I need to strengthen the yield I will need to reduce the number of expected bets, I forecast around 10.000 bets. A bigger wallet will compensate for this, but the turnover wont have the same growth as previously years – I guess around 12 MSEK. . The yield? Hmm … I hope to increase it from 0.6% to 1.0%. In total that would make me 120.000 SEK, equivalent to TWO family vacations (or a small car)!

I only managed to get 1 of 3 right, but still happy…

Lets start with the turnover and its development week by week (accumulated):

I aimed to turn over 12.000.000 SEK (which is approximately 1.170.000 EUR or 1.050.000 GBP) but I only managed to reach 9.700.000 SEK. The reason behind this is that I changed my stakes from 3% of portfolio to 2.5%.

As I have mentioned before I calibrate all my models to hit a yield of 1%. This year I managed to hit that spot on!

And finally the year in terms of profit/loss did better than any previous year, and made me 97.000 SEK (approximately 9.500 EURO or 8.500 GBP). This was below my prediction but still a good result. As long as I can keep my edge in the market I am very happy!

And to round of this summary I need to make some predictions for 2019…. With my new stakes (2.5%) and a bigger capital base for this year I expect to reach 12.000.000 SEK in turnover. Regarding yield I will try to hit 1.0 % this year also. Hopefully I will then be able to add 120.000 SEK to my bank account next year.

Happy new year and see you on the betting markets in 2019!




Results by 2018Q3


It is time to update my bot progress! Lets start with the first graph:

It shows the accumulated profit/loss by week for the last three years. Just as before I had a great start in 2018, quite rapidly made 40000 SEK but then once again hit a bad quarter (second). After the summer performance has yet again improved, and in week 40 I am in profit by 58000 SEK which is better than both 2016 and 2017.

Then next graphs shows the accumulated stakes by week:

My models generate approximately the same number of bets as before, but a few months into 2018 I decided to change my stakes from 3% of capital  to 2.5%. That is the key driver to the decrease in turnover. Still this is disappointing, turn more money is one of the key factors to earn more money.

Finally the next graph shows the ROI of accumulated profit/turn, weekly:

My models are calibrated to hit 1% and 2018 so far shows 0.9%.

I am OK with this development, seems there is a big chance that 2018 will be the best year ever when it comes to profit!