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Update of Results YTD

The last months have been a real roller coaster ride! As mentioned in previous post my ROI started to decline in February/March, but I stayed with my models all the way into July. There I took the decision to accept that my models had lost their edge, and I went back to my analysis tools and after some hard work came up with a new set of models to implement. They were implemented in the middle of August.

It might sound like a trivial thing to determine when your models are without edge, but it is not! Betting volatility is hard to see through, and my models had served me well for a couple of years (with only minor changes during that time). Betting is a long term game, but in retrospective I held on to my models to long. Lesson learned: Update and improve models more frequent!

My new models are in many ways much better than previous – They contain more pricing variables (and hopefully a more accurate odds calculation)  and they are estimated on more recent data. Now I need to wait and follow them for a while before optimizing them.

I have updated some graphs which contains accumulated figures of turnover, profit/loss and yield for 2016 and 2017 YTD.

 

I have exactly the same behavior 2017 as I did in 2016, it starts great and then it  declines from February/March. My yield now 2017 YTD is 0.45%, for 2016 same time (week 36) was 0.65%.

The turnover is much bigger than 2016, the only reason for this is that my bank has grown and therefor also my stakes. I just passed 7.000.000 SEK in 2017, and at the same time in 2016 I had staked around 3.000.000 SEK. Due to the fact that I am using new models I decided to change my requested stake size from 3% to 2%. Therefor I expect the accumulated turnover to grow slower for the rest of the year.

Thanks to the higher turnover I also have a higher PL (31.000 SEK 2017 YTD) compared with 20.000 SEK at the same time in 2016.

In 2016 I had a real good 4th quarter, it will be very exciting to see if my new models will continue to perform for the rest of the year.

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Edge gone to hell, or seasonality?

It’s been some time since the last post, reason is that I had to put some time into my betting models… My problems started in march when my bank started to slowly decrease instead of increase AS SUPPOSED to.

First I kept calm and let the bots run unchanged (AS SUPPOSED),  but the bad trend continued into April and from there into May. In this period there were now quite many bets generated ( 2616 in the period 1.March to 15.May).

As seen in the table above I have been seriously hurt in the Draw and Away models, and the yield is -1.3% which is exactly my long term yield target BUT WITH THE WRONG SIGN.

I am getting older and older and my memory might not be as sharp as earlier (!), but I had a hunch that my models performed real bad in the same period last year. So I dived into my old betting history and took out the performance for the same period in 2016:

OK, my hunch was correct – I had shitty performance in the same period last year (-1.08% yield).

As a final check I plotted the accumulated yield% as a function of week to see if there is some kind similar behavior:

It is now getting quite obvious that I have a repeating pattern between 2016 and 2017. Great performance in January and February, terrible in March, April. If this pattern continues I will see better performance for the rest of the year.

I am still not sure what generates this “problem”, my guess is that its related to the mix of leagues (some starts and stops in March and April), and I don’t take that fact into my current models. So, as a start to address this issue (and hopefully avoid the same pattern in 2018) I have now developed a “League classification rating” which I intend to implement for the third quarter this year.

Some details about my new rating model will be presented in a later post.

 

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Betting results of 2017Q1

Another quarter has passed and it is time to check how the models are performing. The result for the first quarter of 2017:

I am happy to see that it is now my ninth quarter in a row with positive yield! This quarter my bot managed to get matched at least partially in 2316 unique markets. It turned about 2.700.000 SEK (approximately 284.000 EURO or 244.000 GBP) to a yield of 1.20%, bringing a profit of 32.691 SEK (approximately 3420 EURO or 2930 GBP).

My target for 2017 is to turn 10.000.000 SEK to a yield of 1.3%, I can conclude that I am a little ahead of the amount turned but a little behind on the yield. The bad apple of this quarter is the performance of the Away bets with a yield of -2.28%.

I only update my models when the long term performance seems to be falling, some models are updated more frequently than other…  My current models with lifetime and performance:

 

The Home model is the jewel in my portfolio – is has been unchanged for a year (exactly today), during that period it has generated 2118 bets with a yield of 2.33%.  The bad apple is the Away model which now is performing below expectation also when looking at its total lifetime! Unfortunately I haven’t found anything that could improve the model, so I decide to keep it running for a little longer (0.78% is still money in my pocket). When looking at the Draw and O/U models I have found some “low hanging fruits” that can improve the models with only a small reduction in expected number of bets, so even if they are performing above expectation I will launch these changes (or I actually did a couple of days ago). The jewel is unchanged and worshiped for another quarter!

Finally, summing up my total betting career since 2008:

55.523 bets (counting bets and not markets) with a lifetime P/L of 111.302 SEK (approximalety 11.600 EURO or 9980 GBP), most of the profit made in the last 18 months.

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Summing up 2016 and prognosis for 2017

It has been a fantastic year for the bot! Looking back for my 2016 prognosis one year ago, I wrote:

“So what do I hope for 2016? Its not of any value to have financial goals, I will just try to improve the model, bot and risk management as much as possible and hope for the best… But walking into 2016 with much better starting point than in 2015, a reasonable guess would be to turn at least 4 MSEK, and reach a ROI of 1 %. If that’s the case it would mean a profit around 40000 SEK.”

The actual performance for 2008-2016:

post_20170101_1

I managed to increase both turnover and ROI, instead of the prognosis to turn 4 MSEK I turned 6.1 MSEK and instead of 1 % yield I got 1.2%. Increasing both of them gave me a profit of 75 865 SEK (instead of the anticipated 40 000 SEK).

Breaking down the bets for 2016 on bet types:

post_20170101_2

I am happy to see that I am “green all over”, although the Draw and Over/Under models are performing below expectations.

The plan for 2017 is to keep the good models for Home and Away, and do some minor changes to Draw and Over/Under to slightly improve their yield. I aim to get all models +1.0% yield. My total yield goal is to improve from 1.24% to 1.30%.  A bigger wallet for 2017 will also mean bigger stakes and more turnover. Projecting the turn for the last few months indicates that 2017 could turn around 10 MSEK in total. If both these conditions hold I guess that the bot will generate around 130 000 SEK. That would be very satisfying!

I have also implemented two new models, one for Home and one for Over/Under. These are non-competitive with the other models (meaning that they wont ever bet on the same market). I will start these models with very small stakes, and evaluate during the year. If I could get these models going on full stakes later this year it would increase turnover a lot….

Finally, happy new year to you all and let us make 2017 a magic betting year!

 

 

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Betting results 2016-Q3

It is time to sum up the performance of my bot during the last three months (also known as the third quarter…). It has been a really good run, the model has performed above expectation in both ROI and in turnover.

Breaking the quarter down on bet type:

post_20161001_2

We can conclude that the bot struggles to get the Away algorithm to be profitable, it manages to get it just into the green (100.2% ROI). Although that poor performance it manages to get 101.75% ROI on the total, which is above expectation (I aim for around 101%).

In the start of this fourth quarter I will do some adjustment to the away model and hopefully bring it into profit when closing to book for that quarter. I have estimated a new model, with one more explanatory variable then old model, that seems very promising. I will keep the other models untouched (don’t fix it if it ain’t broken…).

Looking back a couple of years I new realise that 2016-Q3 is the seventh quarter in a row with positive results:

 

post_20161001_1

This is of course very pleasing, and clearly indicates that I have an edge in the market. These kind of results only makes me want to work harder and improving the models – Now I know that it is possible and that I am on the right track (there have been many times over the years when I have been on the border of giving up).

finally looking at the yearly table:

post_20161001_3

2016 so far has turned 3.8 MSEK, earned 41.7 KSEK at ROI of 101.09%. Looking back in my old blog (blog.bramhed.se) to see what my expectations were for 2016:

“So what do I hope for 2016? Its not of any value to have financial goals, I will just try to improve the model, bot and risk management as much as possible and hope for the best… But walking into 2016 with much better starting point than in 2015, a reasonable guess would be to turn at least 4 MSEK, and reach a ROI of 1 %. If that’s the case it would mean a profit around 40000 SEK.”

I am ahead!