The first quarter has been a good quarter! I am happy to see that all my models are performing with a positive yield, and within or above my expectations. Let us start with the complete historic picture of my Betfair betting:
So far 2018 has rendered 2.1 MSEK (205000 EURO) in turnover, to a yield of 2 %, resulting in 43708 SEK profit (4200 EURO). I aim to hit a yield of 1 %, so this is far above expectation. As a result of the high yield I see a decline in turnover, I hoped to hit approximately 3 MSEK each quarter. If we look at the separate models per quarter from 2017:
The Home model has performed 0.9 %, a small decline from 2017Q4. The model with the lowest profit, BUT the model that is closest to the calibrated long term yield (so I cant blame it). The Away model turned from red figures in 2017Q4 into a solid 2.3 % yield profit, makes me a little bit surprised because I also note that turn in bets and money also increased. The Draw model performed 1.5 %, also better than 2017Q4. The big surprise is the performance of the Under model, which now landed on a yield of 3.7 % !
Comparing the development week by week:
We see that the year starts extremely well in both 2017 and 2018. In 2017 I had a terrible spring which took my accumulated yield down to 0.3% before the fall stopped and the profit started to raise again (ended at 0.6 %). As I pointed out earlier my models are calibrated to 1 % so I expect the accumulated yield to keep falling to that point, and then be stable for the rest of the year. At the same week last year I had a accumulated yield of around 1 % so I have a much better chance of hitting my target yield this year!