The last months have been a real roller coaster ride! As mentioned in previous post my ROI started to decline in February/March, but I stayed with my models all the way into July. There I took the decision to accept that my models had lost their edge, and I went back to my analysis tools and after some hard work came up with a new set of models to implement. They were implemented in the middle of August.
It might sound like a trivial thing to determine when your models are without edge, but it is not! Betting volatility is hard to see through, and my models had served me well for a couple of years (with only minor changes during that time). Betting is a long term game, but in retrospective I held on to my models to long. Lesson learned: Update and improve models more frequent!
My new models are in many ways much better than previous – They contain more pricing variables (and hopefully a more accurate odds calculation) and they are estimated on more recent data. Now I need to wait and follow them for a while before optimizing them.
I have updated some graphs which contains accumulated figures of turnover, profit/loss and yield for 2016 and 2017 YTD.
I have exactly the same behavior 2017 as I did in 2016, it starts great and then it declines from February/March. My yield now 2017 YTD is 0.45%, for 2016 same time (week 36) was 0.65%.
The turnover is much bigger than 2016, the only reason for this is that my bank has grown and therefor also my stakes. I just passed 7.000.000 SEK in 2017, and at the same time in 2016 I had staked around 3.000.000 SEK. Due to the fact that I am using new models I decided to change my requested stake size from 3% to 2%. Therefor I expect the accumulated turnover to grow slower for the rest of the year.
Thanks to the higher turnover I also have a higher PL (31.000 SEK 2017 YTD) compared with 20.000 SEK at the same time in 2016.
In 2016 I had a real good 4th quarter, it will be very exciting to see if my new models will continue to perform for the rest of the year.