Tobias, a Swedish analyst (currently employed in the insurance industry) with big interest in quantitative sports betting. I am active on Betfair since 2008, running a fully automatized bot there. Always trying to sharpen my models and increasing my edge!

This blog will contain my reflections and progress within the field of modelling and predicting sports probabilities, especially for soccer matches. It is a long way to create a long term winning betting bot, but I am there! Its been a really long process…

At least my competence within betting has improved significantly during those years. When I started out in 2008 I tested simple ideas (like long shot bias) and spent hours every day to place bets.

In 2009 I started to automatise it by using screen scraping methods in combination with excel, I still didn’t do real mathematical models – I just filtered the outputs and adjusted my betting criterion’s from that.

In 2010 I took interest in the mathematical side of betting, started to build models and calculate my own odds.

In 2011 I developed my first bot, totally automatising the process of collecting odds and data as well as placing bets. I programmed my bot to connect to the Betfair API which finally gave me something more stable than excel (and imacros..).

Since then its been a battle of finding better models with a real edge, as well as developing the bot.

2014 – Went Inplay instead of Pregame, and from this point I think that my models actually have edge (although a small one). During the last year I also learned the importance of having good money management…

Currently the main focus is in improving betting turnover and ROI, I am also looking into Pregame modelling once again.

I will share my progress, my results and some tips and tricks to get you started or inspired.