The content of other football blogs the last couple of weeks have been dominated by different takes on English soccer. I decided to take a look at my own records to see how I have done on the English markets.
I took a look at the years 2016 and 2017 (I know that my models during those years have been quite good with a small edge). The English leagues where I have the most bets on are League One and League Two. The table shows my stake, profit/loss and yield during those year:
There are in total 810 bets on these markets during those two years. I am happy to see that no matter if I find an opportunity in backing home, draw, away or over/under I manage to profit! +3 % yield on all models is way above expectation.
When I take those 810 bets and view them yearly I see that the trend is positive, went from 3.2% to 4.2% yield from 2016 to 2017.
For some reason my edge is bigger on those markets than on the average market. A shared edge is a halved edge? Anyway, if I were obliged to give you a tip it would certainly be to explore the League One and League Two for edges. And do not restrict it to the draws, the markets seems easier to profit from than other leagues.
I am not sure why but I guess that those markets are perfect in size … To small for the sharpest to really bother, but with a big interest from the average loosing punter.
Do not tell anyone!