Top10 supported soccer teams – Looking for edges – Part 3 of 3

This is the third post in the following series:

1. If many “play-for-fun” supporters bet on their favorite team, can laying them pre-game be a winning strategy?
2. What if one of these teams take a one goal lead in-play. Should I back or lay?
3. What if their opponent takes the lead by one goal. Should I back or lay?

In this last exercise we examine the situation where the Top10 team suddenly is trailing by one goal. This doesn’t happen often so there is only a small amount of data.


There seem to be value in laying the Top10 team if it is the home team, and the match is a domestic league match. It seems like the market overestimates the comeback potential in those cases!

Now we have mined through some data and found a few angles that could be interesting to exploit, so in the next blog post I intend to create some strategies from these insights for 2017 – and will follow up on them during the year. So check back in a few days!

Leave a Reply