Edge gone to hell, or seasonality?

It’s been some time since the last post, reason is that I had to put some time into my betting models… My problems started in march when my bank started to slowly decrease instead of increase AS SUPPOSED to.

First I kept calm and let the bots run unchanged (AS SUPPOSED),  but the bad trend continued into April and from there into May. In this period there were now quite many bets generated ( 2616 in the period 1.March to 15.May).

As seen in the table above I have been seriously hurt in the Draw and Away models, and the yield is -1.3% which is exactly my long term yield target BUT WITH THE WRONG SIGN.

I am getting older and older and my memory might not be as sharp as earlier (!), but I had a hunch that my models performed real bad in the same period last year. So I dived into my old betting history and took out the performance for the same period in 2016:

OK, my hunch was correct – I had shitty performance in the same period last year (-1.08% yield).

As a final check I plotted the accumulated yield% as a function of week to see if there is some kind similar behavior:

It is now getting quite obvious that I have a repeating pattern between 2016 and 2017. Great performance in January and February, terrible in March, April. If this pattern continues I will see better performance for the rest of the year.

I am still not sure what generates this “problem”, my guess is that its related to the mix of leagues (some starts and stops in March and April), and I don’t take that fact into my current models. So, as a start to address this issue (and hopefully avoid the same pattern in 2018) I have now developed a “League classification rating” which I intend to implement for the third quarter this year.

Some details about my new rating model will be presented in a later post.


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