totalresults2018q3

Read up!

As described in previous post I went back to the drawing board and redesigned my models. To get some inspiration and motivation I bough a few books and read them carefully. I did not anticipate to get complete “+110% ROI MEGA DELUXE MODELS” but my hope was to get some inspiration which I could use when creating my own models and strategies. The books I read were by James Butler and Joseph Buchdahl and I can certainly recommend them if you are into the game of betting .

 

“Programming for Betfair” & “Betfair trading techniques” by James Butler, “Squares & Sharps, Suckers & Sharks” by Joseph Buchdahl.

Some of the new things in my models would not have been there without these books, thanks James and Joseph!

 

 

totalresults2018q3

Update of Results YTD

The last months have been a real roller coaster ride! As mentioned in previous post my ROI started to decline in February/March, but I stayed with my models all the way into July. There I took the decision to accept that my models had lost their edge, and I went back to my analysis tools and after some hard work came up with a new set of models to implement. They were implemented in the middle of August.

It might sound like a trivial thing to determine when your models are without edge, but it is not! Betting volatility is hard to see through, and my models had served me well for a couple of years (with only minor changes during that time). Betting is a long term game, but in retrospective I held on to my models to long. Lesson learned: Update and improve models more frequent!

My new models are in many ways much better than previous – They contain more pricing variables (and hopefully a more accurate odds calculation)  and they are estimated on more recent data. Now I need to wait and follow them for a while before optimizing them.

I have updated some graphs which contains accumulated figures of turnover, profit/loss and yield for 2016 and 2017 YTD.

 

I have exactly the same behavior 2017 as I did in 2016, it starts great and then it  declines from February/March. My yield now 2017 YTD is 0.45%, for 2016 same time (week 36) was 0.65%.

The turnover is much bigger than 2016, the only reason for this is that my bank has grown and therefor also my stakes. I just passed 7.000.000 SEK in 2017, and at the same time in 2016 I had staked around 3.000.000 SEK. Due to the fact that I am using new models I decided to change my requested stake size from 3% to 2%. Therefor I expect the accumulated turnover to grow slower for the rest of the year.

Thanks to the higher turnover I also have a higher PL (31.000 SEK 2017 YTD) compared with 20.000 SEK at the same time in 2016.

In 2016 I had a real good 4th quarter, it will be very exciting to see if my new models will continue to perform for the rest of the year.