Another quarter has passed and it is time to check how the models are performing. The result for the first quarter of 2017:
I am happy to see that it is now my ninth quarter in a row with positive yield! This quarter my bot managed to get matched at least partially in 2316 unique markets. It turned about 2.700.000 SEK (approximately 284.000 EURO or 244.000 GBP) to a yield of 1.20%, bringing a profit of 32.691 SEK (approximately 3420 EURO or 2930 GBP).
My target for 2017 is to turn 10.000.000 SEK to a yield of 1.3%, I can conclude that I am a little ahead of the amount turned but a little behind on the yield. The bad apple of this quarter is the performance of the Away bets with a yield of -2.28%.
I only update my models when the long term performance seems to be falling, some models are updated more frequently than other… My current models with lifetime and performance:
The Home model is the jewel in my portfolio – is has been unchanged for a year (exactly today), during that period it has generated 2118 bets with a yield of 2.33%. The bad apple is the Away model which now is performing below expectation also when looking at its total lifetime! Unfortunately I haven’t found anything that could improve the model, so I decide to keep it running for a little longer (0.78% is still money in my pocket). When looking at the Draw and O/U models I have found some “low hanging fruits” that can improve the models with only a small reduction in expected number of bets, so even if they are performing above expectation I will launch these changes (or I actually did a couple of days ago). The jewel is unchanged and worshiped for another quarter!
Finally, summing up my total betting career since 2008:
55.523 bets (counting bets and not markets) with a lifetime P/L of 111.302 SEK (approximalety 11.600 EURO or 9980 GBP), most of the profit made in the last 18 months.