During the last few weeks I have noticed a drop in turnover and especially in number of bets placed by my bot. Is my edge vanishing? What is the problem?!
To answer these questions I needed to create three KPI’s that describes how my models are performing in terms of generating bets and turnover; Hit-rate%, Try-rate% and Model%. I define them as:
Hit-rate = # Matched markets / # Potential markets
Try-rate = # Amt req markets / # Potential markets
Model-rate = # Potential markets / # Followed markets
The gross number of markets followed by the bot is labeled “Followed markets”, the number of markets that are within my risk appetite (meaning a betting situation can occur) is labeled “Potential markets”, “Amt req markets” are the number of markets where I asked for a bet and finally the “Matched markets” is the number of markets where I at least got a bet partially matched.
Plotting these KPI’s for the last couple of years:
From the above chart we can see at least three important things:
a. The difference between my Try-rate and Hit-rate is constant => I still get at least partially matched in 90 % of my bets.
b. There seem to be a lift in hit-rate/try-rate in January 2017, which is contrary to what my intuition says. A rise from around 10 % to 15 %, which can be explained by the new strategies I have added for 2017 (they are only tested with minimum stakes and therefor their presence is only visible here and not in turnover).
c. The Model-rate is also constant at around 85%, meaning that my risk appetite have the same impact in relative terms as previous years.
In the above chart we see the absolute number of markets followed and markets within my risk appetite. We can clearly see two things:
a. The cyclic nature of soccer markets, with many markets played in April and October and less markets in December/January/June.
b. The increase of markets followed by the bot during the last years, explained mainly by improving my code and therefor making it possible to follow more markets simultaneously.
From these two charts I conclude that the low in bets generated is simply a problem with few markets played. When a market is followed I still have the same probability to find a betting opportunity and the same probability to get a bet through. I am also positive surprised that the test strategies lifts my hit-rate from 10 % to 15 %, now I only hope that they also will deliver a ROI of +101%.