I am now entering my 8 (eight!) year as an amateur punter on Betfair. So where am I after all those years?
My lifetime Profit/Loss on betfair is as we speak -3.900 SEK, made from about 35.000 bets with a total turnover around 4.100.000 SEK (ROI -0.1%).
There have been LOT of work for no profit at all … But I still I don’t doubt a second that I can start to make descent profits from my models, I am getting closer and closer and I really think that this year will be a break point where I turn my lifetime PL into plus side and actually starts making some money.
Atleast my competence within betting has improved significantly during those years. When I started out in 2008 I tested simple ideas (like long shot bias) and spent hours every day to place bets.
In 2009 I started to automatise it by using screen scraping methods in combination with excel, I still didn’t do real mathematical models – I just filtered the outputs and adjusted my betting criterion’s from that.
In 2010 I took interest in the mathematical side of betting, started to build models and calculate my own odds.
In 2011 I developed my first bot, totally automatising the process of collecting odds and data as well as placing bets. I programmed my bot to connect to the Betfair API which finally gave me something more stable than excel (and imacros..).
Since then its been a battle of finding better models with a real edge, as well as developing the bot.
2014 – Went Inplay instead of Pregame, and from this point I think that my models actually have edge (although a small one). During the last year I also learned the importance of having good money management…
2015 – Aim to improve betting turnover and ROI, I will keep you up-to-date with my progress 🙂
My key driver for all those years is probably more the “treasure hunt” than the treasure itself….