Market efficiency – looking for a niche

I calculated the implied probabilities from the pre-game odds (1/odds), and distributed the over-round evenly over the three scenarios. Then I summed them together with the actual wins.

This first table shows that the market had the most problems with the Away predictions. Market predicted the Away teams to win corresponding to 29027 times, but they actually only won 28192 times (which is a diff of 2.9%).

I dug a little deeper to see how the situation is when dividing by pre-game favourite:

Now I start to identify some areas which the market seems to have bigger problems with… such as the probability for an Away win when the pre-game favourite is a Home win.

This could be a starting point when designing a new strategy. Find a niche where the market has problems, and try to be the best in that niche 🙂 Now I will continue to mine my data, and see if I can find a new niche area.

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