Cassini, writer of the excellent blog Green all Over wrote a very interesting piece a few days ago regarding hobby traders vs the pro’s in the betting industry. He meant that its impossible for the average hobby trader to get some kind of edge over the pro’s on those markets where there is much action (for example inplay soccer). He means that the pro’s have an advantage in information which in the long run will win over the hobby trader.
Well, I dont agree with Cassini… I think its very much possible, if you are smart and choose your battles.
I know that it would be impossible for me to compete with pro’s in all markets and all kind of situations. My trick is that I have choosed to become a “real” specialist within a very narrow scenario in inplay soccer.
I dont model all situations in all soccer matches, and I dont try to model all kind of markets. I choose my battles!
I am sure that I now beat most of the pro’s in my little well defined box, just because I spend all my available time to learn everything in that little box.
So my tip to you who struggle with your strategies and cant find an edge:
Choose a league, situation, team or whatever and be the best in that field, by doing so you will eventually find edge there. Good luck!