It is time to sum up the performance of my bot during the last three months (also known as the third quarter…). It has been a really good run, the model has performed above expectation in both ROI and in turnover.
Breaking the quarter down on bet type:
We can conclude that the bot struggles to get the Away algorithm to be profitable, it manages to get it just into the green (100.2% ROI). Although that poor performance it manages to get 101.75% ROI on the total, which is above expectation (I aim for around 101%).
In the start of this fourth quarter I will do some adjustment to the away model and hopefully bring it into profit when closing to book for that quarter. I have estimated a new model, with one more explanatory variable then old model, that seems very promising. I will keep the other models untouched (don’t fix it if it ain’t broken…).
Looking back a couple of years I new realise that 2016-Q3 is the seventh quarter in a row with positive results:
This is of course very pleasing, and clearly indicates that I have an edge in the market. These kind of results only makes me want to work harder and improving the models – Now I know that it is possible and that I am on the right track (there have been many times over the years when I have been on the border of giving up).
finally looking at the yearly table:
2016 so far has turned 3.8 MSEK, earned 41.7 KSEK at ROI of 101.09%. Looking back in my old blog (blog.bramhed.se) to see what my expectations were for 2016:
“So what do I hope for 2016? Its not of any value to have financial goals, I will just try to improve the model, bot and risk management as much as possible and hope for the best… But walking into 2016 with much better starting point than in 2015, a reasonable guess would be to turn at least 4 MSEK, and reach a ROI of 1 %. If that’s the case it would mean a profit around 40000 SEK.”
I am ahead!